The Commodity Report

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US wants to diversify commodity exports away from China // Largest Orange Juice Producers in the World // Emerging Markets Fund Flows not overstretched yet

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US wants to diversify commodity exports away from China // Largest Orange Juice Producers in the World // Emerging Markets Fund Flows not overstretched yet

The Commodity Report #91

Lukas Kümmerle
Feb 20
8
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US wants to diversify commodity exports away from China // Largest Orange Juice Producers in the World // Emerging Markets Fund Flows not overstretched yet

commodityreport.substack.com

Welcome to another 39 people who subscribed to the Commodity Report during the last week, bringing the total subscriber count up to 4.840.


Largest Orange Juice Producers in the World

The world's orange juice production is carried out by only three countries. Among these countries, the United States is one of the major orange juice producers, with Florida being the leading producer. Oranges are picked and processed within a day to maintain their freshness and quality before they are packed and sold. Despite being a significant producer of orange juice, Florida has experienced a 90% decline in orange production from its peak levels in the 1990s.

largest orange juice producing countries

The US wants to diversify commodity exports away from China

The chief agricultural trade negotiator of the United States, Doug McKalip, is urging China to continue its efforts to fulfill the farm goods purchase commitments agreed upon in the 2020 "Phase 1" trade deal. However, he is also working to expand exports to markets beyond China in order to diversify the customer base for U.S. agricultural products. McKalip emphasized that his primary goal is to open up new markets for these products. Despite this, he acknowledged that China will remain an important customer for the United States, as evidenced by the fact that it accounted for almost a fifth of global U.S. farm exports, which reached a record-breaking $213 billion in 2020.

In addition, McKalip has asked Mexico to provide scientific explanations for its ban on genetically modified corn. He has also urged Canada to expand U.S. access to its dairy import quotas to resolve a separate U.S. trade challenge.


Inflation Remains Sticky // Intermarkets #3

In this week’s episode, I look back at the inflation numbers we received last week and put them into perspective. The FED has to change course AGAIN.

Watch or hear it on Youtube Video or Spotify Podcast.

Meanwhile, the latest cover story by the Economist provides us with another great contrarian signal. Perhaps inflation will decline faster from here onwards after all.


Emerging Markets Fund Flows not overstretched yet - BUT

Just looked at the latest BofA survey and what catches my eye is the stretched net overweight in Emerging Markets positioning. Nevertheless, looking at the Fund Flow model – relative flows have more room to rise—something to keep in mind – perhaps time for “just” a correction.

Emerging Markets fund Flows Citywire

Check this out as well

morning brew nesletter

With Kuemmerle Research and The Commodity Report, we try to cover the most critical topics in commodity trading. The daily Morning Brew Newsletter features other parts of the market like business, tech and finance news. I read the newsletter on a regular basis myself and can therefore say that it’s actually worth a read. Check it out here - it’s free.


This week look out for the following:

  • Bank Holiday on Monday

  • Flash Service and Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday

  • Existing Home Sales on Tuesday

  • Prelim GDP numbers on Thursday

  • Core PCE Price Index on Friday


A subscription costs $29 a month, and you will receive an additional in-depth report every Sunday evening at 6:00 PM CEST. Moreover - you will receive a monthly economic growth report as well. That information will only be published to members and not the general public.


Till next Monday, Lukas

If you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to contact me via Twitter or Mail.

Disclaimer: All information, views, and opinions provided herein are for informational purposes only and should not be construed or relied upon as investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation for any form of investment. The information contained in this website is the most recent information available to us (except otherwise noted); however, all of the information herein is subject to change without notice. Certain information included in this website is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable; however, no representation is made with respect to the accuracy or completeness of such data. All opinions, estimates, and forward-looking statements, including any market forecasts or projections, involve a number of assumptions that may not prove to be valid. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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US wants to diversify commodity exports away from China // Largest Orange Juice Producers in the World // Emerging Markets Fund Flows not overstretched yet

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