CTA Positioning Update
The latest CTA picture by UBS shows that managed money is currently maxed long coffee and oil and max short corn, soybeans cotton and lean hogs. The contrarian ideas would speculate on the exact opposite of this positioning.
On the other hand, the data currently suggests only slight changes in the current positioning. This data always has to be analyzed with a grain of salt, and making investment decisions solely based on such data isn’t a sustainable approach.
The Return of La Niña
The likely return of the La Niña climate phenomenon, and the associated shift in global weather patterns and temperature extremes, will bring a new wave of disruption and volatility to key global commodity markets. S&P Global created a handy overview of what to expect. We already planned potential trades and are waiting for execution once changes in drought conditions become visible. We especially expect renewed drought concerns in important Brazilian growing regions.
In Other News…
Oil was responsible for 32% of the energy consumed around the world in 2023, followed by coal (26%) and then natural gas (23%) according to a statistic by the Energy Institute. Renewables’ share of total primary energy consumption reached 14.6%, an increase of 0.4% over the previous year. Together with nuclear, they represented roughly 19% of total primary energy consumption.
This week, look out for the following:
Richmond Manufacturing Index on Tuesday
Flash PMI data on Wednesday
Durable Goods Orders on Thursday
PCE Price Index on Friday
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Till next Monday, Lukas
If you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to contact me via X or Mail.
I really like that La Nina Weather Map and the Energy Consumption Chart !!!