Something Is Brewing…
Commodity Report #215
*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 13,0%
Something Is Brewing…
The Abrdn Commodity Index is putting in a textbook head and shoulders consolidation pattern. These chart patterns with a large base have the tendency to build the fundament for big breakouts. Something is brewing from a technical perspective here…
The ETF is tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM).
This is the composition of the ETF at the moment. Almost two thirds of the fund are invested in traditional energy and metals futures. The remaining third is allocated towards agri-futures. For comparison, we allocate more than 80% towards agri-futures in our strategies.
BofA Fund Manager Survey Update
Compared to the long-term z-score fund managers remain very long EUR and utilities. Meanwhile they continue to avoid the USD as well as energy. In commodities we see now a slightly positive positioning, however this has to be put in context as the commodity position will be mostly consisted of the positive gold sentiment throughout investors.
Another view that confirms that crowded gold thesis is this analysis by Markets Recon. Their instrument measured the opinions of all available half-year-reports by asset managers, investment banks and similar.
For the first time in the history of the survey, the most crowded trade (i.e. the trade that investors perceive as the most popular in the market) is positioning against the US dollar. 34% of respondents opted for this answer. At the same time, the allocation to European equities has risen to a four-year-high.
Perhaps we already reached max US pessimism in June…
In Other News…
A good overview about the global coffee demand picture and some of the more obvious challenges the market is facing:
This week, look out for the following:
Richmond Manufacturing Index on Tuesday
Flash PMIs on Thursday
Durable Goods Orders on Friday
Institutional Services
If you’re an institutional investor that wants to commit money into our strategy, receive a portfolio-overlay or copy our strategy to participate directly from our framework - contact us via info@lukas-kuemmerle.com
Till next Monday, Lukas
If you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to contact me via X or Mail.