Our Latest Commodity Trades Revealed

The Commodity Report #191

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Our Latest Commodity Trades Revealed

For this week, I decided to show you guys three active positions from our commodity portfolio - with a short explainer of why we took the position and what our expectations for each trade are.

• Long Coffee - entered 21.01 via KCH2025

long trend continuation (trend following, market remains in Backwardation due to major supply issues and broke out of a short consolidation again)

• Short Cotton - entered 18.12 via CTH2025

trend continuation after major compression regime (triangle breakout)

• Long Cocoa - entered 21.01 via CCH2025

long trend continuation (trend following, market remains in Backwardation due to major supply issues and broke out of a short consolidation again)

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CTA Positioning Update

According to the latest UBS-CTA model, CTAs have bought the 4 cohorts (precious, industrials, energy and agriculturals) at a record speed in January.

The model expects some flows reversal in February, especially in Energy and Precious where CTAs' positioning is starting to look stretched.

• “Contrarian” trades: bullish Industrials Metals and Cotton, bearish Energy and Gold

• “Go with momentum” trades: bullish Corn and Lean Hogs, bearish Zinc

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In Other News…

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This week, look out for the following:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday

• JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday

• ISM Services PMI on Wednesday

• Job Market Report on Friday

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Research Service

If you’re an institutional investor, check out our research products for commodity-related futures or equities here.

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Till next Monday, Lukas

If you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to contact me via X or Mail.

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