July 2023 - Macro Commodity Outlook

Our commodity-related macro framework for the month - All the macro fundamentals that investors with commodity exposure need to know

We currently receive conflicting signals from our leading economic indicators. Nevertheless, we still found no example in history where we did not get a hard landing when the US M2 Money Supply, the Credit Impulse as % share of GDP and the Yield Curve were all negative at the same time.

Our thesis stands that a tradable turning point won’t be reached until Q4 of 2023. So far our thesis brought us good returns - we remain active mostly only on the short side - as we trade in most markets with that view with the overall trend. Our Kuemmerle Report portfolio is up 27% YTD while the CRB index is down 5% YTD.

These are the reasons that continue to put us in a very defensive mood, but also highlight that the data is very conflicting at the moment.