Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

The Commodity Report #176

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CTA Update

Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.

• Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium,

• Go with momentum' trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices

Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week. After it became evident that the hurricane had less impact on the crops and was less severe than analysts estimated - prices came back down.

Meteorologist Jim Roemer said last week that a path cutting across the state south of Tampa could hurt up to 20% of groves.

Florida’s orange crop is still recovering from the major losses of Hurricane Ian in 2022.

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Volatile Grains

With less expected stimulus in China, all eyes are back on the supply side, following the weather in South America. As a direct result, grain prices came under pressure last week. Moreover there is plenty of rain forecasted in the main growing regions as the planting season starts.

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In Other News…

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This week, look out for the following:

• Bank Holiday on Monday in the US

• Empire State Manufacturing Index on Tuesday

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales data on Thursday

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sample idea - cotton - from Kuemmerle Report - 21.07.24

A subscription costs $29 a month, and you will receive an additional in-depth report called “The Kuemmerle Report” every Sunday evening at 6:00 PM CEST. The report covers all liquid commodities, like in the sample above visualized. On top of that you get our takes on weather patterns as well as our latest economic outlook. That information will only be published to members and not the general public.

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Till next Monday, Lukas

If you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to contact me via X or Mail.

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