Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher
The Commodity Report #204
*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 9,7%
Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher
The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March. Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils. Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.
Especially food oil (up 21% YoY) and dairy prices (up 23% YoY) continue to push up the FAO price index for months now…
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Strong Gold Demand in Q1
The World Gold Council (WGC) first-quarter demand trends report signals ongoing strong investment interest and central bank buying, with overall demand reaching 1,206 metric tons (its strongest first quarter since 2016.
ETF buying was strong in Q1, central bank gold buying activity was also robust and bar & coin demand which usually every quarter remains positive was almost unchanged data from The World Gold Council showed during the week.
CTA Flow Update
Selling pressures from CTAs are likely to fade, and even reverse in some cohorts, like energy and agriculturals, UBS writes in its latest CTA flow report. The core convictions of the bank at the moment:
Contrarian trades: bullish Cotton, Lead, Nickel and Platinum, bearish Tin and Cattle Feeder
Go with momentum trades: bullish Soybean Oil, Robusta Coffee and Corn, bearish Soybean Meal and Natgas
Strong signals are currently short soybean meal and long cotton
In Other News…
Barron’s latest cover story…
This week, look out for the following:
ISM Services PMI on Monday
FOMC meeting on Wednesday (consensus is rates will remain at 4.50%)
Institutional Services
If you’re an institutional investor that wants to commit money into our strategy, receive a portfolio-overlay or copy our strategy to participate directly from our framework - contact us via info@lukas-kuemmerle.com
Till next Monday, Lukas
If you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to contact me via X or Mail.