Sentiment Signal in Gold
The Commodity Report #203
*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 9,7%
Sentiment Signal in Gold
This was this week’s cover story of the investment magazine Barron’s:
This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched - which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well. With the consumer becoming more and more fragile caused by the ongoing trade war, this may be something to think about going forward…
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DeepSeek or Trump?
Before Liberation Day, US stocks were already underperforming, partly due to European assets being more in favor due to the huge stimulus from Germany as well as the overall weakness in the Mag-7.
In a note, Deutsche Bank Research showed that Mag-7 underperformance stemmed from the arrival of DeepSeek, which crystallized concerns about how monetizable AI would be for US tech firms. “If you remember, there were also mounting concerns about AI CAPEX spending at the time. This hasn’t gone away and will be in focus as Q1 earnings season starts to kick into gear.” the bank wrote on Thursday.
Here is what historically happened after the USD hit a new 3-year low, according to Nautilus Research:
Last week, I already showed you the stretched bearish sentiment towards the greenback with the latest Economist cover stories. This week, Deutsche Bank came out and said that they expect a structural USD bear market that lasts for the remaining time of this decade. Strong words and convictions here…make you think…
In Other News…
A few words that seem to be exceptionally true these days to think about…
This week, look out for the following:
JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Job Market Report on Friday
Institutional Services
If you’re an institutional investor that wants to commit money into our strategy, receive a portfolio-overlay or copy our strategy to participate directly from our framework - contact us via info@lukas-kuemmerle.com
Till next Monday, Lukas
If you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to contact me via X or Mail.