August 2023 - Macro Commodity Outlook

Our commodity-related macro framework for the month - All the macro fundamentals that investors with commodity exposure need to know

We currently receive conflicting signals from our leading economic indicators. Nevertheless, the majority of economic leading indicators point to improving economic conditions. This is why we turned bullish on some industrial-related commodities at the beginning of July. We don’t say that the economy is out of the woods yet - we just say that the current data we have indicates that the can will be kicked down the road a bit further. (with the can we refer to a recession)

Meanwhile we started balancing our trading bias - we are now active on the long and short side in the commodity markets again. Our Kuemmerle Report portfolio is up 28% YTD while the CRB index is currently up 1% YTD.

The reasons for our current “improving economic outlook” in the overview.